Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Mauritania
  • Senegal
  • Malawi
  • Kenya

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $685,155$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{667,768.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(667,768.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,248$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,491.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.9)}}\) (asimptote \(17,491.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,780$ on 2020-10-07

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,624$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,213.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 173.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,213.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(89.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $869$ on 2020-10-07

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,513$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,069.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,069.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $608$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,036.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 179.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,036.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,074$ on 2020-10-07

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $140,024$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{467,215.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 233.6)}}\) (asimptote \(467,215.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,439$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,943.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 252.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,943.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,443$ on 2020-10-07

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,325.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-10-07

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,052$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,300.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,300.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-10-07

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,035$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,230.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,230.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,010$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,810.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,810.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $533$ on 2020-10-07

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,804$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,365.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,365.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $276$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.5)}}\) (asimptote \(276.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $289$ on 2020-10-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 95%
Senegal recovered 58%
Malawi recovered 55%
Kenya recovered 46%
Rwanda recovered 32%
Mozambique recovered 24%

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,535$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,121.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 91.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,121.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $162$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.2)}}\) (asimptote \(158.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $161$ on 2020-10-07

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,174$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,007.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,007.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $313$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(323.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,863$ on 2020-10-07

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,803$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,832.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,832.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(179.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,048$ on 2020-10-07

Kenya⮸

Population $53,771,296$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,907$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,439.0}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(39,439.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $748$ on 2020-10-07

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{796.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(796.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,500$ on 2020-10-07