Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $685,155$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{667,768.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(667,768.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,248$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,491.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.9)}}\) (asimptote \(17,491.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,780$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,624$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,213.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 173.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,213.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 166.6)}}\) (asimptote \(89.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $869$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $39,513$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,069.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 175.0)}}\) (asimptote \(54,069.8\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $608$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,036.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 179.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,036.3\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,074$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $140,024$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{467,215.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 233.6)}}\) (asimptote \(467,215.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,439$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,943.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 252.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,943.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,443$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 68.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,325.7\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,052$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,300.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,300.2\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.1)}}\) (asimptote \(86.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $75$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,035$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,230.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,230.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,010$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,810.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,810.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $533$ on 2020-10-07
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,804$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,365.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 91.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,365.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $276$ on 2020-10-07
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{276.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 96.5)}}\) (asimptote \(276.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $289$ on 2020-10-07